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Last year’s Rookie of the Year race between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren was one for the history books—elite talent, league-shaking performances, and a rivalry we’ll be talking about for years. Fast forward to this season, and, well…it’s not quite living up to those insanely high standards. But don’t count this class out just yet—what they lack in dominance, they’re more than making up for with unpredictability and drama.
The Rookie of the Year market is all over the place this season. Injury setbacks, scoring slumps, and breakout performances have caused wild swings in the odds almost weekly. Zach Edey’s early injury derailed his momentum but hasn’t knocked him out of contention. Stephon Castle, once a frontrunner, has dropped off and is fighting to regain relevance. Meanwhile, guys like Alexandre Sarr and Yves Missi are making their cases quietly but effectively.
It’s a wide-open field, and that’s what makes it so fun. Below, we break down the top contenders for the 2024–25 ROTY crown and make our prediction (spoiler alert—it may surprise you).
Zach Edey (Memphis Grizzlies)
The 7’4” big man was the favorite entering the season—and for good reason. At 22 years old, Edey had the physical tools and the polish to immediately contribute to the NBA. His towering frame made him a natural fit as Memphis’ starting center, and early on, he showed flashes of brilliance. Think 25 points, 12 boards, and 4 blocks against the Jazz in November. Solid, right?
But then came the injury. Edey missed 12 games in November and December, throwing his Rookie of the Year campaign into chaos. Since returning, he’s worked his way back into the starting lineup (most of the time, at least) and is putting up decent numbers—around 10–15 points and near double-digit rebounds nightly.
The big question? Can Edey stay consistent and healthy enough to hold off the competition? His Boxing Day monster game (21 points, 16 rebounds) has us believing he’s got what it takes to keep his name in the mix. But given how volatile this season is, being the favorite might just be a curse rather than a blessing. FanDuel NBA odds have Edey at +150 to win the ROTY award, so the betting world is still on his side.
Alexandre Sarr (Washington Wizards)
If Zach Edey is “steady but unspectacular,” Alexandre Sarr is the opposite. The 7’2” Frenchman has athleticism for days and one of the highest ceilings in this rookie class, but he’s still figuring things out. Playing almost 30 minutes a game for the Wizards, Sarr has shown flashes of being Victor Wembanyama-lite—an agile center who blocks shots, grabs boards, and knocks down the occasional jumper.
Through the first 20 games, Sarr’s numbers were nothing to write home about. But recently? He’s heating up. Over the New Year’s stretch, he scored 18-plus points three times and chipped in multiple double-digit rebound games. He’s starting to look like the dynamic two-way player Washington hoped they were drafting.
Is Sarr consistent enough to win Rookie of the Year? Maybe not. But if he keeps improving at this pace, don’t be surprised if he’s averaging something like 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks by season’s end. Those numbers would put him right in the thick of the ROTY race.
Yves Missi (New Orleans Pelicans)
The Pelicans’ injury-ridden frontcourt has been a blessing in disguise for Yves Missi, who’s making the most of his unexpected minutes. Drafted 21st overall, the 6’10” big man isn’t showing the all-around game of Edey or Sarr, but what Missi does have is hustle. He’s absolutely owning the offensive glass—nearly half of his 8 rebounds per game are offensive.
Missi’s offensive numbers (sub-10 points per game) aren’t eye-popping, but his gritty, high-energy play has made him a standout in a less-than-stellar rookie class. If Zion Williamson returns (big “if”), Missi’s playing time will probably plummet. But as long as Zion’s sidelined, Missi is making a case as the scrappy underdog in this Rookie of the Year conversation.
Can hustle and second-chance buckets win Rookie of the Year? Maybe not in a stronger class, but this year? Don’t count it out.
Jaylen Wells (Memphis Grizzlies)
Jaylen Wells wasn’t supposed to be in the ROTY race at all. The 39th pick in the draft is the epitome of a role player—efficient scoring, solid defense, and not much else. But in a shallow rookie pool, steady play on a playoff-caliber team can go a long way.
Wells is averaging 11.6 points per game while shooting a respectable 43.3% from the field and 37.4% from deep. Those aren’t glamorous numbers, but his Jan. 7 performance against the Kings—30 points on 11–16 shooting, including 8–9 from three—showed he’s got the potential to be a game-changer on any given night.
Still, it’s hard to see Wells really contending for ROTY. He’s a supporting cast guy, and unless he puts together a string of explosive performances, he’s probably destined to be more of a feel-good story than an award-winner.
Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs)
Stephon Castle is the wild card. At pick #4, expectations were high for the Spurs’ young guard coming into the season. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, especially earlier in the year when he was temporarily thrust into the starting lineup. But recently? His minutes have taken a hit as the Spurs juggle rotations.
Why is Castle still worth watching? Per 36 minutes, his production is as good as any rookie in the league. If the Spurs find consistent minutes for him—or if an unfortunate injury to a starter gives him his shot—Castle has the skills to put together a late surge.
For now, though, the question isn’t “how good is Stephon Castle?” It’s “Will he get the playing time to prove it?” If the answer becomes “yes,” don’t be surprised if Castle re-enters the Rookie of the Year conversation in a big way.
Our Pick for Rookie of the Year
This year’s Rookie of the Year race is unpredictable, wild, and, frankly, a little underwhelming compared to last season. But that’s what makes it so fascinating. Zach Edey is the safe pick—he’s got the size, skills, and numbers to just hold off the competition if he stays healthy. Alexandre Sarr is the upside play, with the tools to dominate if he finds consistent momentum. And Stephon Castle? He’s the intriguing long shot who could rise like a phoenix if things break the right way.
If we’re putting money down today, we’re going with Zach Edey as the most likely winner. But if you’re looking for value—and a bit of excitement—keep an eye on Stephon Castle. Stranger things have happened.
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