THE MARTINGALE SYSTEM AND… SPORTS BETTING?
Okay, you successfully made the transition from sports enthusiast to sports bettor. You started out as a tremendous fan of your local team and went on to learn everything there is to know about football or cricket. You started making small wagers and eventually developed enough knowledge to consistently pick the proper winner. Now, you’re ready to take the next step to advance from the ranks of a beginner punter to intermediate punter. So what’s the next gradual step? Bet sizing.
You’d be surprised how many sports bettors overlook bet sizing. Most of the time, the average bettor makes too many mistakes by betting too much or betting too little. That’s why it is important to direct your focus on how much to bet.
Many betting philosophies or models will preach that you should wager a set amount or a sliding percentage of your bankroll per game. Then there’s the renowned Martingale model, which is a progressive betting system.
There are different mathematical models, also known as betting systems, which have become a staple among roulette aficionados. Some more popular efficient mathematical models and betting systems are the Martingale, Grand Martingale, and Paroli. Each of those systems could be applied to sports betting, but Martingale has the most merit when applied to the sports betting realm.
WHAT OR WHO IS MARTINGALE?
What is the Martingale system? Contrary to some belief, there is no famous gambler called Martin Gale who had a betting system named after him. The single-worded “martingale” actually refers to a series of betting systems popularized in France in the 1800s. The primary form of gambling, roulette, happened to be the most popular game around at the time. You could say that back then, roulette was experiencing its own boom as in the 19th century, its popularity quickly spread throughout Europe, especially France.
Simply put, the Martingale strategy is doubling your wager after every loss. In theory, you bet a standard amount every time – no matter if you win or lose – but if you lose a wager, then you bet twice your losing amount… and continue to do so until you win your wager. Eventually, you will break even.
- EXAMPLE: You are playing roulette and your standard wager is £50. You put £50 on RED (where the result is close to even money), but you lose when BLACK hits. So then your next wager would be £100. If you bet on RED again and lose, then your next wager would be £200. When you finally win with RED, then you return to betting £50.
Initially, this theory of Martingale was practiced with the simple act of flipping coins – heads or tails. The excitement of roulette drew in flocks of new players. As roulette rose in popularity, a standardized or optimal strategy was sought after by enthusiasts. Many gamblers applied existing betting systems like the Martingale and applied its progressive wagering for bets on red or black.
The Martingale mathematical model can be applied to sports betting – and even to the world of finance – under some ideal circumstances, particularly the World Cup or the NBA Playoffs. The Martingale theory is still the same: wager a set amount every time (e.g. £50 per match), but double down after a loss (e.g. starting with £100, then £200, etc.).
What if you keep losing your wager and you have to keep doubling down? That’s an excellent question. In theory, if you have an unlimited bankroll, you will never have to worry about losing a significant amount during a losing streak because you will always break even.
GRAND MARTINGALE
The Grand Martingale is similar to the original Martingale by doubling down after a loss, except you actually wager slightly more. The Grand Martingale philosophy is betting a standard amount every time and doubling down on loss but +1 your wager.
- EXAMPLE: If you initially wager £50 on Real Madrid and lose, then your second wager would be £100 in the Martingale system… however… in the Grand Martingale model, if you lose your wager on Real Madrid, then your next would wager would be £100 + £50 (initial wager) or a total of £150. If you lose that match, then your next wager would be £150 x2 or £300 + £50 or £350 in total.
The Grand Martingale is a high-risk mathematical system for the average punter, so you should probably avoid using it until you amass a deeper bankroll.
PAROLI
The Paroli mathematical model is sometimes referred to as the Anti-Martingale betting system. In theory, the Paroli system is the opposite of Martingale in which you double your wager when you win, but bet a standard amount when you lose.
- EXAMPLE: With the Paroli… you originally wager £50 on a single NBA game and back the Los Angeles Lakers, in which the payout is even money. If the Lakers lose… then you wager £50 again. If the Lakers win, then you wager £100. If you win that, then you wager £200, and so on. When you lose, then you revert back to even.
This Paroli mathematical model is not perfect because you only minimize your losses and never maximize your wins. In theory, you could amend the Anti-Martingale by setting a certain number of consecutive wins when you stop and book a winning wager; let’s say after you win your second wager at 2x your initial wager.
- EXAMPLE of Amended Paroli: You wager £50 and win, so you wager £100 and win again, but on the third time you revert back to initial wager of £50.
It’s a good way to minimize losses, but it can only bring you small wins.
CONCLUSION
Oftentimes, bet sizing is overlooked when making a wager, especially at prestigious Las Vegas sportsbooks like the Westgate (formerly known as the old International Hotel or the Las Vegas Hilton). Mostly everyone knows which teams to bet on, but they don’t know how much to bet. That’s why using various mathematical models can help you figure out the proper wager amount.
Both the Martingale and Paroli are popular roulette betting systems that can be applied to sports betting as a suitable mathematical model. For beginner sports bettors, both the Martingale and Paroli are simple systems that are easy to memorize. For intermediate punters, the proper utilization of mathematical models such as Martingale and Paroli can help you sharpen your bet-sizing skills.